Practice disconfirmation

Recognize that Confirmation Bias tempts us to notice and embrace evidence that confirms our predispositions while ignoring or disregarding evidence that challenges them.

The scientific method is based on the premise that things cannot be proven to be true; they can only fail to be shown false.

Start by creating a thesis. For example:

  • This stock will go up in value
  • I should hire this person
  • I should not hire this person

Rather than trying to prove that your thesis is true, practice disconfirmation by looking for any evidence that it is false. Ask others to help. The more evidence you find that the thesis is false, the weaker it becomes. But the more people who are unable to falsify the thesis, and for a longer amount of time, the more credible the thesis becomes.

Copyright © 2023 Richard Morgan.